Florence Population Increased by U.S. Census Bureau Following a Successful Challenge

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Each May, the United States Census Bureau (“the Bureau”) releases its annual population estimates for cities and towns across the country. In May 2019, the Bureau released its 2018 estimate for the town of Florence, which it said had a population of 26,419. The Town of Florence filed a challenge to this number after it determined that the Bureau’s numbers did not adequately account for the group quarters populations in Florence, nor for the significant new growth that had occurred in the prior twelve months.

The Town undertook a lengthy and detailed challenge process, providing monthly data on group quarters populations and residential building permits issued over the previous ten years. These were compiled and sent to the Bureau prior to its August deadline for population estimate challenges.

Over the next few months, the Bureau reviewed the data provided by the Town of Florence and ultimately concurred that the population of Florence was undercounted. The Bureau provided a revised estimate for Florence’s population, which is now 27,061. This revision increased the population estimate by 642 residents from the Bureau’s original estimate.

For a couple of reasons, this upward revision will have a significant and positive impact on the Town of Florence moving forward.

1. In Arizona, these annual population estimates are used as the basis for each community’s share of revenue that is derived from the State and distributed back to the community on a per capita basis. Increased population numbers mean that the Town will see an increase in dollars to pave and repair its streets, to provide Police and Fire services, to run the Library, Parks, and the Aquatic Center, and to provide planning services that help the town grow in a smart and efficient way. As each resident of the Town brings over $400
back to the Town, the increase of 642 residents is not insignificant, and could result in future increases of state-shared revenue of over $250,000 per year.

2. The 2018 Population Estimate will be used as a baseline for the 2019 Population Estimate. The Bureau will combine the revised data on group quarters and residential building permits as a result of this process with data on birth, deaths, and migration. Therefore, this information will serve to ensure the estimate for 2019 population will be more accurate. Absent the challenge, it is possible that the 2019 estimate (which will be released in May 2020) would also undercount the true population for Florence, thereby resulting in a further loss of revenue for the Town.

The 2020 Census will be used as the baseline for the population estimates in 2021 and beyond. It will be equally important that all residents are counted on Census Day 2020. As the 2020 Census will be the first Census in which residents can participate by filling out the survey online, the Town is encouraging all its residents to begin filling out the Census once it goes online in only 4 weeks. The Bureau will send postcards to each residence, with the link to complete the survey. A complete count will bring more resources to Florence, thereby increasing the quality of life for our community.